DisplaySearch President and conference host Ross Young opened the forum, telling the crowd that both sides “appear ready to slug it out long-term.”
While Young concluded that neither HD-DVD nor Blu-ray would dominate anytime soon, he said the market for DVDs, which topped out at 20 million units sold in 2003, is “ripe for a technology transition.”
Taking Young’s lead, many of the speakers focused on the more general question of when consumers would begin their migration to either next-generation format.
Sonic Solutions Vice President Jim Taylor said he believes consumers will gradually make the jump to the next-generation formats with greater ease than the switch from VHS to DVD because the market is already experienced with using DVDs.
Panasonic Vice President Eisuke Tsuyuzaki disagreed with Taylor, saying that consumers will adopt the new technology quickly because today’s media moves at a faster, viral pace.
For Taylor, one factor that could slow the adoption of the next-generation technology is the existence of two competing formats.
“It won’t be an overnight transition,” Taylor said, telling the crowd to expect a long-term atmosphere of “détente.”
Taylor cited the rise of dual-format players as evidence that consumers aren’t likely to pick a winner anytime soon.
In the meantime, combatants in the format war have placed a great deal of stock in content. While many analysts quietly speculate that adult content producers may ultimately decide the battle, Toshiba, the force behind HD-DVD, and Sony, which leads the consortium behind Blu-ray, have been busy making deals with mainstream movie studios.
Seven Hollywood studios, 11 consumer electronics companies, four IT companies and several gaming and music companies, among them Electronic Arts and Vivendi Universal, support Blu-ray.
HD-DVD has locked up five movies studios, but only Universal and The Weinstein Co. have made exclusive commitments.
According to Taylor, focusing on which technology has the best quality or the most backers misses the mark. Titles will determine the winner, he said.
"People go to buy 'The Matrix' or 'Finding Nemo' because of the title, not because they like a particular data rate or disc capacity," Taylor said.
